The March 15 Strategic Voting Guide

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strategic voting winner take all

The March 15 Strategic Voting Guide

Super Tuesday has concluded, but the hopes of stopping Donald Trump have not.  In fact, Ted Cruz’s victories in Texas, Oklahoma, and Alaska, as well as Marco Rubio’s win in Minnesota, prove that Trump can be defeated.  He’s far from inevitable – the #NeverTrump movement has succeeded in stemming his momentum and presenting to the voters the true ramifications of a Trump nomination.

We need Republicans and Democrats to cast their ballot in a manner that stems Trump’s momentum and erodes his delegate advantage.  This might entail voting for a candidate who isn’t your number 1 choice; however, as long as you fear a Trump nomination – both for its ripping the Republican Party and its tyrannical/authoritarian/proto-fascist potential – then you need to act in a strategic manner.

Moreover, we’ve seen that strategic voting works.  Analysts predicted that Trump would win around 280 delegates in the Super Tuesday contests.  Instead, he only won 254.  Cruz and Rubio’s outperforming polls and delegate expectations point both to Trump’s inherent weakness and to beneficial effects of people casting their vote in a way that maximizes the chance Trump falls short of the 1,237 delegates needed to secure the nomination.

March 15 marks the beginning of winner-take-all (WTA) states.  Huge amounts of delegates rest on the table, ready for the taking.  We cannot let Donald Trump win those delegates.  These contests mark the best opportunity to eat into his lead and prevent Trump from reaching the magic number of 1,237.

Florida (primary): 99 delegates given to the candidate receiving the highest number of statewide votes.

Florida is a huge state with enough delegates to alter the primary landscape.  Is is easily the most important state on March 15.  Donald Trump cannot win Florida.

Vote Marco Rubio.  He’s trailing in polls but is the only candidate who could catch Trump.  It’s his home state and that will provide a natural boost to his vote count. Rubio is up in early voting – and his lead is large enough to preclude a Cruz victory in the state.  Adding Cruz and Kasich voters to Rubio’s polling numbers puts him neck-and-neck with Trump and in a place where a strong organization and late boost would and him a victory.  This isn’t about handing the nomination to Rubio; it’s about stopping Trump from winning the nomination.  99 delegates is a huge amount.  Trump cannot win these or else he would be well on his way to the Republican nomination; voters must rally to Rubio’s cause in Florida.

Illinois (primary): 69 delegates, 54 directly elected at the congressional district levels, and 15 statewide, WTA.

At the district level, voters directly choose delegates (who are listed with their presidential preference).  Statewide delegates are awarded to the candidate receiving the most votes throughout the state.

Vote Ted Cruz.  Cruzis the only candidate with an opportunity who could catch and beat Donald Trump.  Though not as delegate rich as Florida, Cruz would stand a good chance to rack up votes in Chicago and her suburbs, increasing his district delegate count and bolstering his statewide count.  It’s a fantastic opportunity to hand Trump a needed loss and for Cruz to net delegates at Trump’s expense.

Missouri (primary): 52 delegates, 5 at each of the 8 congressional districts and 12 at-large with a statewide WTA trigger.

In each congressional district, the candidate receiving a plurality of the votes receives all 5 delegates and the candidate with the most statewide votes wins all 12 at-large delegates.  However, if a candidate wins a majority of the vote statewide, he wins all of Missouri’s 52 delegates.

Vote Ted Cruz.  With little polling, it’s hard to exactly pinpoint the state of the Missouri race.  However, the most recent poll shows a Cruz lead and the momentum from his victories in Texas and Oklahoma could translate into Missouri votes.  With the potential to win so many delegates – either at the district level or statewide – it becomes imperative that voters rally around Cruz so he, and not Trump, can win Missouri’s many delegates.  Missouri is another wonderful opportunity to eat into Trump’s delegate advantage.

North Carolina (primary): 72 delegates awarded proportionally based on statewide returns.

Vote Ted Cruz.  North Carolina is fairly proportional, so it doesn’t provide a great opportunity to net delegates over Trump.  However, a victory here would slow Trump’s momentum and that’s incredibly important.  Cruz stands a good chance of winning here; a strategic vote for him would hurt Trump’s chance of winning the nomination.

Ohio (primary): 66 WTA delegates.

Vote John Kasich.  This is really important.  Ohio, of course, is Kasich’s home state and he’s almost tied with Trump in the polls.  66 delegates is a lot.  Cruz and Rubio supporters strategically casting ballots for Kasich would ensure his victory and would prevent Trump winning 66 delegates, enough to move him substantially closer to the nomination.

 

All of these states are potential pickups for non-Trump candidates.  March 15 states offer many delegates, a number of which on a WTA basis.  Through strategic voting, Republicans can stop Trump’s amassing of delegates and eat into his lead.  Doing so naturally lowers his chances of winning the nomination and ensures that political discourse is not hijacked by a lying fraud whose ideas are repugnant to the Constitution and who is a cancer on conservatism.

 

Sources for delegate allocation come from FHQ and The Green Papers.

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