The Super Tuesday Strategic Voting Guide
Trump has now won three contests in a row and has racked up a sizable delegate lead – 81 to Cruz and Rubio’s 17. He’s well on his way to the 1237 he needs to win the nomination. On Super Tuesday, March 1, another 595 delegates are up for grabs. Afterwards come the winner-take-all (WTA) states. Should Trump win a majority of Super Tuesday delegates and carry momentum into the (WTA) March 15 states, he could forge an insurmountable delegate lead and become the presumptive nominee before the April contests. We cannot let that happen. There’s one way to stop him: strategic voting.
We need Republicans and Democrats to cast their ballot in a manner that stems Trump’s momentum and erodes his delegate advantage. This might entail voting for a candidate who isn’t your number 1 choice; however, as long as you fear a Trump nomination – both for its ripping the Republican Party and its tyrannical/authoritarian/proto-fascist potential – then you need to act in a strategic manner. I’ll explain the ramifications after our guide to stopping Trump on March 1.
Here are the Super Tuesday states and here’s how to vote to prevent a Trump nomination:
Alabama: 50 delegates at stake – 26 at-large, 21 by congressional district, 3 unbound, 20% threshold.
Each of the 7 congressional districts has 3 delegates distributed proportionally (to candidates receiving at least 20% of the vote). If a candidate receives 50% +1 of the vote in the district, he takes all 3 delegates.
The 26 at-large delegates are awarded on a proportional basis to candidates receiving at least 20% of the vote. Should a candidate receive 50% +1, he wins all 26.
Here, voters must boost the non-Trump candidate polling best and most inclined to win >20% – and ideally 50% – of the vote.
Republicans: Vote Ted Cruz. Trump leads the field – by a lot – with Cruz in second. Given the white, evangelical composition of the Arkansas electorate – Cruz’s target demographic – the state favors him. He has a strong southern ground game and message that reverberates in those states. Rubio voters should shift to Cruz in this state so he can rack up votes in congressional districts and statewide, thereby depriving Trump of delegates. It’s crucial here to rally behind Cruz as splitting the vote between him and Rubio would open the door to Trump winning by large margins in congressional districts and across the state, furthering his delegate lead.
Democrats: Vote Ted Cruz. Hilary Clinton leads this state by more than 25 points. Barring a major disaster in the next week, she will win (easily). Therefore, it’s best for Alabama Democrats to vote in the Republican primary (which is open) for Ted Cruz. The reasons are the same as above – Cruz has the best chance of stumping Trump in Arkansas.
Alaska: Caucus, 28 delegates distributed proportionally, 22 at-large, 3 for its congressional district, 3 automatic, 13% threshold.
All candidates receiving >13% of the vote (a hard 13%, no rounding up) qualify to receive delegates in a proportional manner.
Coalescing to defeat Trump here would yield a net advantage of only a couple delegates, but every little bit helps.
Republicans: Vote Marco Rubio. No poll has been conducted recently in Alaska, so it’s hard to gauge the state of the race. However, Alaska is one of the least religious states, a fact which hurts Cruz’s appeal. Demographics, then, seem to favor Rubio and as such, a strategic ballot should have his name checked.
Democrats: There caucus is closed to Republicans, so unless you switch party affiliation, there’s nothing that can be done.
Arkansas: 40 delegates distributed proportionally, 25 at-large, 12 by congressional district, 3 unbound, and a 15% threshold with a winner-take-all and most (WTA/M) provision.
All candidates receiving at least 15% percent of the statewide vote receive at least 1 delegate. A candidate who wins a majority gets the remaining delegates (25 less the number of candidates above 15%).
Candidates who win 15% of the vote at the congressional district receive a delegate unless one candidate earns 50% of the vote, in which case he wins all delegates.
Republicans: Vote Ted Cruz. He leads, narrowly, in the polls and is best suited in terms of ground game and message to win this socially conservative state. Shifting votes from Rubio to Cruz would likely ensure that Rubio receives some delegates – he’s polling above the 15% threshold – but would expand Cruz’s lead over Trump, therein eroding Trump’s delegate lead. If enough Rubio supporters switch to Cruz to hand him a congressional district (or multiple), all the better. This is a state Trump could very well lose and it’s absolutely necessary to increase Cruz’s victory share to enlarge his delegate count.
Democrats: Vote Ted Cruz. Clinton has a large lead here and should win without trouble. The primary is open, so it’s possible to fill out the Republican ballot. An influx of Democrats for Ted Cruz would expand his polling lead and add multiple percentage points to his potential victory That’s crucial to stopping Trump.
Georgia: 76 proportional delegates, 31 at-large, 42 across congressional districts, 3 unbound, and a 20% threshold with a WTM provision.
All candidates receiving 20%+ of the statewide vote are eligible to proportionally receive some of the 31 at-large delegates. If a candidate wins 50%+ of the statewide vote, he takes all at-large delegates.
At the district level, the winner receives 2 delegates and the runner up gets 1 unless a candidate wins a majority of the district vote, in which case he gets all 3 delegates.
Republicans: Vote Marco Rubio. Late February polls show Rubio up between 2 and 4 points on Cruz for second place. Given that Rubio has some momentum and is starting to rallying party leaders, that led might expand in the coming days. Republicans need to further that stream by strategically voting for Rubio. Given that third place does not receive delegates at the district level, it is imperative that Cruz supporters back Rubio so he has decisive second place finishes across the state and can win delegates. Splitting the 2/3 delegates across the many congressional districts with Trump winning would create a situation in which Trump dominates Georgian delegates. That cannot happen – to defeat Trump, Republicans must prevent him from accruing delegates in states like Georgia. They can only do that by rallying around second place. Rubio is that candidate here.
Democrats: Vote Marco Rubio. Hillary leads by nearly 40 points here. She will win. Cast your vote in a strategic manner by voting Rubio and halting Trump’s momentum.
Massachusetts: 42 proportional delegates, 10 at-large, 27 for congressional districts, 5 unbound, with a 5% threshold.
3 delegates per congressional district and 10 across the state.
Republicans: Vote Marco Rubio. Trump has a massive lead. No other candidate cracks 20% and are all clustered in the low double digits. Republicans should unify around Rubio and boost his vote tally in this traditionally moderate and business-friendly state.
Democrats: Vote Sanders or Clinton. Trump will win MA. The Democratic primary, though, is contentious and it would be a mistake to skip this competition.
Minnesota: 38 proportional delegates, 11 at-large, 24 by congressional districts, 3 unbound with a 10% threshold and 85% WTA trigger.
Republicans: Vote Marco Rubio. He leads in the most recent poll and has been targeting this caucus state. Minnesota provides a true opportunity to soundly defeat Trump (and the larger the margin of victory the better). Shifting from Cruz to Rubio will solidify the latter’s victory and add to his margin, costing Trump delegates and making him seem fallible.
Democrats: Vote Marco Rubio. Clinton leads by 30 points in the last poll and though caucuses can seem unpredictable, the data bodes well for her (especially considering she has momentum after winning Nevada and a likely victory in South Carolina). The Republican caucus is open – it’s best to switch over and vote Rubio to stump Trump.
Oklahoma: 43 delegates, 25 at-large, 15 by congressional district, 3 unbound with a 15% threshold and a 50% WTA trigger statewide and in congressional district.
Candidates receiving 15% of the statewide vote are eligible for part of the 25 at-large delegates. A candidate receiving a majority of the statewide votes receives all 25 delegates.
The same applies at the congressional level – candidates above 15% are viable for delegates and a candidate with a majority gets all 3 delegates from that district
Republicans: Vote Ted Cruz. The last poll, which is old, had Cruz in second place, 5 points behind Trump. Oklahoma is a deep-red, socially conservative state, a boon to Cruz. His appeal to those voters and Trump’s weakness on social issues makes Cruz the best poised ideologically and electorally to defeat Trump here. Rubio supporters would be advised to switch to Cruz because there is true potential for Trump to lose. An alternate candidate needs to start winning and Oklahoma is the perfect state to end Trump’s winning.
Democrats: Vote Sanders or Clinton. The polls show this is a close contest and Sanders is targeting the state. This should come down to the wire and voters would be remiss to skip this primary.
Tennessee: 58 proportional delegates, 28 at-large, 27 for congressional districts, 3 automatic with a 20% threshold and a 67% WTA trigger.
Candidates receiving over 20% of the vote statewide and in each congressional district are eligible for delegates. Any candidate receiving more than 67% of the vote statewide or in a district wins all of those delegates up for grabs.
Republicans: Vote Ted Cruz. Trump purportedly has a big lead here with Cruz running second. As another deeply religious state, it would seem privy to Cruz’s message and appeal. With many delegates available here, it becomes necessary to rally around Cruz, even if it’s for second place, to prevent a large Trump victory that expands his delegate lead at the expense of the alternates.
Democrats: Vote Ted Cruz. Clinton leads by around 20 points which points to an easy victory. Tennessee is an open primary and every ballot cast for Cruz decreases Trump’s chance of winning the state and the nomination. It’s best to strategically vote Republican here.
Texas: 155 proportional delegates, 44 at-large, 108 in congressional districts, and 3 automatic with a 20% threshold and a 50% WTA trigger.
Candidates above 20% proportionally receive some of the 44 at-large delegates. If a candidate wins a majority of the vote, he receives all 44 delegates.
Similarly, candidates above 20% in congressional districts are eligible for delegates and a candidate earning 50% +1 wins all delegates for that district.
Republicans: Vote Ted Cruz. This is Cruz’s home state and he’s leading in the polls. He’s not far from an outright majority – adding half of Rubio’s support to Cruz pushes him over that threshold. There are so many delegates at stake here and a strong Cruz showing could halt Trump’s momentum and bridge the delegate gap. The path to stopping Trump goes through Texas. It’s absolutely imperative that Republicans rally around Cruz in the Lone Star State. He can win districts and statewide.
Democrats: Vote Ted Cruz. Clinton has a lead, though it’s not huge. However, given the importance of the state to Cruz and the prospects of stopping Trump, everyone must strategically rally to the Cruz camp. A large Cruz victory in popular vote and in delegates may block Trump from the nomination. That has to be the number one goal.
Vermont: 16 delegates, 10 at-large, 3 in congressional districts, and 3 automatic with a 20% threshold and 50% WTA trigger.
Much the same as other states – earning 20% of the vote makes one viable for delegates across the state and its one congressional district. A candidate with a majority of the vote wins all the delegates.
Republicans: Vote Marco Rubio. Trump has a large lead in the Green Mountain State with Rubio running a distant second. However, he seems best positioned to gain ground and to prevent Trump from wining an outright majority. Secondly, he’s closest to 20%, the threshold to even receive delegates. Republicans must rally around him so he’s viable and Trump doesn’t take the backdoor route to taking all of Vermont’s delegates.
Democrats: Vote Marco Rubio. Sanders leads Clinton by more than 70 points and will indubitably win by a lot. It’s best to switch to the more competitive primary and help Rubio earn a few delegates to prevent Trump from expanding his lead.
Virginia: 49 proportional delegates, 13 at-large, 33 at the congressional districts, and 3 automatic with no threshold and no WTA trigger.
A purely proportional contest, delegates are distributed based on vote percent.
Republicans: Vote Marco Rubio. The most recent poll has Rubio down 6 to Trump, so within striking distance. Since vote margin matters more than winning, it’s important that Kasich and Carson voters shift to Rubio (but less important that Cruz voters shift their preference). Given it’s proportional nature, no sizable delegate advantage will be gained, but a candidate can boast about winning. Since winning brings momentum, Trump must not win and so Republicans should rally to Rubio.
Democrats: Vote Sanders or Clinton. Clinton is up in Virginia, but by a surmountable margin. Moreover, since the Republican primary won’t have a huge impact on delegate totals, it doesn’t make too much sense to switch over.
Strategic voting and strategic voting only can stop Trump on March 1. Momentum plays a huge factor in the race and the best way to stop Trump’s momentum is to make sure he loses. Furthermore, delegate count matters – it’s “yuge.” Coalescing around one candidate in these states stops Trump from accumulating delegates and forging ahead on his quixotic and dangerous attempt to win the nomination.
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[Read more: Donald Trump’s pathetic response to policy inquiries, his deep insecurity, and his dangerous temperament.]