Strategic Voting Guide, March 5-8 Contests

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Strategic Voting Guide, March 5-8 Contests

Super Tuesday has concluded, but the hopes of stopping Donald Trump have not.  In fact, Ted Cruz’s victories in Texas, Oklahoma, and Alaska, as well as Marco Rubio’s win in Minnesota, prove that Trump can be defeated.  He’s far from inevitable – the #NeverTrump movement has succeeded in stemming his momentum and presenting to the voters the true ramifications of a Trump nomination.

Moreover, we’ve seen that strategic voting works.  Analysts predicted that Trump would win around 280 delegates in the Super Tuesday contests.  Instead, he only won 254.  Cruz and Rubio’s outperforming polls and delegate expectations point both to Trump’s inherent weakness and to beneficial effects of people casting their vote in a way that maximizes the chance Trump falls short of the 1,237 delegates needed to secure the nomination.

Based on popularity and result, we’ve decided to publish a strategic voting guide to the March 5-8 contests.  Without further ado:

Kansas (caucus): 40 delegates, 25 at-large, 12 for congressional districts, 3 unbound.  Proportional allocation with a 10% threshold at both the statewide and congressional level.

Vote Marco Rubio.  Though polls are scarce in the state and the scant data available show a Rubio and Cruz draw, Rubio has the backing of Kansan Governor Sam Brownback (which will likely boost Rubio in the polls if Brownback stumps for him).  As it currently stands, neither Rubio nor Cruz hit the 15% threshold, though many undecided voters remain.  Given Rubio’s endorsement advantage and proven ability to win late-deciders, Kansas is a state ripe for Rubio pick up at the expense of Trump.  Republicans and Democrats alike would be wise to strategically caucus for Rubio to boost his delegate count and decrease Trump’s.

Kentucky (caucus): 46 delegates, 25 at-large, 18 for congressional districts, 3 unbound.  Proportional allocation with a 5% threshold.

Vote Marco Rubio.  The most recent poll has Rubio trailing Trump by 13 but leading Cruz by 7.  Given the low threshold, even with the majority of Cruz supporters rallying around Rubio, Cruz will still receive delegates.  Adding half or more of Cruz’s support to Rubio significantly cuts into Trump’s lead.  Add in Kasich supporters and some undecided voters and Trump will be defeated.  Caucuses are Trump’s weak spot.  He fails to get people to caucus locations.  Rubio will have better luck doing that (as evidenced by Minnesota) and, with the backing of other candidate supporters, will defeat Trump.  All Trump losses slow his increase in delegates and make it harder for him to win the nomination.  A vote for Rubio here is a must.

Louisiana (primary): 46 delegates, 25 at-large, 18 for congressional districts, and 3 unbound.  Proportional allocation with a 20% statewide threshold (but none in the congressional districts).

Vote Ted Cruz.  Again, polling data is scant.  That said, Cruz tends to perform well in Southern states and Louisiana will likely be no exception.  With Louisiana’s high statewide threshold, it’s imperative that Rubio voters flock to Cruz so that their vote is not divided and Cruz is viable for the at-large delegates.  Trump would win all 25 through a backdoor winner-take-all (WTA) if Cruz and Rubio fail to reach 20%.  At the district level, adding to Cruz’s vote total takes delegates away from Trump.  In a race dominated by delegate math, every little bit helps.  A strategic vote for Cruz in Louisiana will advance the goal of preventing a Trump nomination.

Maine (caucus): 23 delegates, 20 at-large and 3 unbound.  Proportional allocation with a 10% threshold.

Vote Marco Rubio.  No polls guide this decision, but rather the intuition that Rubio runs better in New England than does Ted Cruz (as polls are taken, we will update this section).  Maine’s low threshold means that even in half of Cruz’s support goes to Rubio, Cruz will likely receive delegates.  Kasich, though strong in New England, would likely stand below the 10% threshold (based on national trends – again, this will be updated with polling data if some comes available); his supporters should caucus for Rubio.  Again, caucuses favor Trump’s challengers.  Maine is another opportunity for the non-Trump coalition to pick up a victory and delegates and to show America that Trump is not a viable candidate.

Hawaii (caucus): 19 delegates, 10 at-large, 6 in the two congressional districts, and 3 unbound.  Proportional allocation with no threshold.

Vote Marco Rubio.  We’re operating in the dark here.  No polls have been taken in the Aloha State.  However, Hawaii tends to be an establishment-friendly state that has voted for moderate candidate in past primary seasons.  Marco Rubio, then, would stand the best chance of defeating Trump.  (If polls are taken and released, we’ll update this portion).

Idaho (primary): 32 delegates, 29 at-large, and 3 unbound.  Proportional allocation with a 20% threshold.

Voted Ted Cruz.  The most recent poll shows Trump in the lead but Cruz within striking distance.  Idaho tends to be a deeply conservative state, which favors Cruz.  The poll has him just below threshold – if Carson and Rubio voters rally to Cruz, he will easily surpass 20% (Rubio is not close) and will likely challenge Trump for delegates here.  Cruz is the only non-Trump candidate who could be viable for delegates and who could hand Trump a needed loss.

Michigan (primary): 59 delegates allocated proportionally with a 15% threshold and a WTA trigger.

All candidates above the 15% threshold are eligible to receive delegates unless one candidate earns a majority of the statewide votes, in which case he wins all 59 delegates.

Vote Marco Rubio.  It’s close, but he leads Cruz in the polls and, barring new data that dramatically changes our calculations, stands the best chance of beating Trump in this crucial state.  Rubio is above the 15% threshold, though not by much.  He needs new support to keep well above 15% – otherwise, Trump sweeps 59 delegates.  Trump leads in Michigan, but aligning around Rubio should double his poll numbers (this includes Kasich and Cruz supporters.  Kasich will not be viable.  His supporters must rally around Rubio).  Strategically voting for Rubio makes him competitive with Trump, will keep the delegate count close, and may even hand Trump a stunning loss.

Mississippi (primary): 40 delegates, 28 at-large and 12 at the congressional district level.  Proportional with a 15% threshold statewide and at the congressional level; WTA district trigger.

Candidates above 15% statewide are viable for delegates; those above 15% in congressional districts earn at least one delegate unless a candidate gets a majority of the votes in that district, in which case he wins all 3.

Vote Ted Cruz.  Little polling data is available, but Cruz, who runs well in the South and in religious statements, is best positioned in this state (as part of his “southern firewall”).  Trump also does well in the deep South – see his Georgian and Alabamian victories – and could use Mississippi to net many delegates.  Considering he has the potential to win congressional districts and net 12 delegates there, it is imperative that voters flock to Cruz to keep him above the 15% threshold and to keep Trump from earning a majority of the votes anywhere in the state.  It’s an opportunity for Cruz to prevent Trump from expanding his delegate lead and perhaps even eroding his current advantage.

 

March 15 marks the beginning of WTA states.  To a large extent, momentum from these March 5 and 8 contests will shape the trajectory of primaries held in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina.  These caucuses offer a prime opportunity to hand Trump losses, eat into his delegate lead, and reshape the narrative of the race.  Please, use this guide to cast strategic ballots and ensure that Donald J. Trump and his fascist tendencies do not represent the Republican Party come November.

 

Sources for delegate allocation come from FHQ and The Green Papers.

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