Monthly Archives: March 2016

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strategic voting winner take all

The March 15 Strategic Voting Guide

Super Tuesday has concluded, but the hopes of stopping Donald Trump have not.  In fact, Ted Cruz’s victories in Texas, Oklahoma, and Alaska, as well as Marco Rubio’s win in Minnesota, prove that Trump can be defeated.  He’s far from inevitable – the #NeverTrump movement has succeeded in stemming his momentum and presenting to the voters the true ramifications of a Trump nomination.

We need Republicans and Democrats to cast their ballot in a manner that stems Trump’s momentum and erodes his delegate advantage.  This might entail voting for a candidate who isn’t your number 1 choice; however, as long as you fear a Trump nomination – both for its ripping the Republican Party and its tyrannical/authoritarian/proto-fascist potential – then you need to act in a strategic manner.

Moreover, we’ve seen that strategic voting works.  Analysts predicted that Trump would win around 280 delegates in the Super Tuesday contests.  Instead, he only won 254.  Cruz and Rubio’s outperforming polls and delegate expectations point both to Trump’s inherent weakness and to beneficial effects of people casting their vote in a way that maximizes the chance Trump falls short of the 1,237 delegates needed to secure the nomination.

March 15 marks the beginning of winner-take-all (WTA) states.  Huge amounts of delegates rest on the table, ready for the taking.  We cannot let Donald Trump win those delegates.  These contests mark the best opportunity to eat into his lead and prevent Trump from reaching the magic number of 1,237.

Florida (primary): 99 delegates given to the candidate receiving the highest number of statewide votes.

Florida is a huge state with enough delegates to alter the primary landscape.  Is is easily the most important state on March 15.  Donald Trump cannot win Florida.

Vote Marco Rubio.  He’s trailing in polls but is the only candidate who could catch Trump.  It’s his home state and that will provide a natural boost to his vote count. Rubio is up in early voting – and his lead is large enough to preclude a Cruz victory in the state.  Adding Cruz and Kasich voters to Rubio’s polling numbers puts him neck-and-neck with Trump and in a place where a strong organization and late boost would and him a victory.  This isn’t about handing the nomination to Rubio; it’s about stopping Trump from winning the nomination.  99 delegates is a huge amount.  Trump cannot win these or else he would be well on his way to the Republican nomination; voters must rally to Rubio’s cause in Florida.

Illinois (primary): 69 delegates, 54 directly elected at the congressional district levels, and 15 statewide, WTA.

At the district level, voters directly choose delegates (who are listed with their presidential preference).  Statewide delegates are awarded to the candidate receiving the most votes throughout the state.

Vote Ted Cruz.  Cruzis the only candidate with an opportunity who could catch and beat Donald Trump.  Though not as delegate rich as Florida, Cruz would stand a good chance to rack up votes in Chicago and her suburbs, increasing his district delegate count and bolstering his statewide count.  It’s a fantastic opportunity to hand Trump a needed loss and for Cruz to net delegates at Trump’s expense.

Missouri (primary): 52 delegates, 5 at each of the 8 congressional districts and 12 at-large with a statewide WTA trigger.

In each congressional district, the candidate receiving a plurality of the votes receives all 5 delegates and the candidate with the most statewide votes wins all 12 at-large delegates.  However, if a candidate wins a majority of the vote statewide, he wins all of Missouri’s 52 delegates.

Vote Ted Cruz.  With little polling, it’s hard to exactly pinpoint the state of the Missouri race.  However, the most recent poll shows a Cruz lead and the momentum from his victories in Texas and Oklahoma could translate into Missouri votes.  With the potential to win so many delegates – either at the district level or statewide – it becomes imperative that voters rally around Cruz so he, and not Trump, can win Missouri’s many delegates.  Missouri is another wonderful opportunity to eat into Trump’s delegate advantage.

North Carolina (primary): 72 delegates awarded proportionally based on statewide returns.

Vote Ted Cruz.  North Carolina is fairly proportional, so it doesn’t provide a great opportunity to net delegates over Trump.  However, a victory here would slow Trump’s momentum and that’s incredibly important.  Cruz stands a good chance of winning here; a strategic vote for him would hurt Trump’s chance of winning the nomination.

Ohio (primary): 66 WTA delegates.

Vote John Kasich.  This is really important.  Ohio, of course, is Kasich’s home state and he’s almost tied with Trump in the polls.  66 delegates is a lot.  Cruz and Rubio supporters strategically casting ballots for Kasich would ensure his victory and would prevent Trump winning 66 delegates, enough to move him substantially closer to the nomination.

 

All of these states are potential pickups for non-Trump candidates.  March 15 states offer many delegates, a number of which on a WTA basis.  Through strategic voting, Republicans can stop Trump’s amassing of delegates and eat into his lead.  Doing so naturally lowers his chances of winning the nomination and ensures that political discourse is not hijacked by a lying fraud whose ideas are repugnant to the Constitution and who is a cancer on conservatism.

 

Sources for delegate allocation come from FHQ and The Green Papers.

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strategic voting winner take all

Strategic Voting Guide, March 5-8 Contests

Super Tuesday has concluded, but the hopes of stopping Donald Trump have not.  In fact, Ted Cruz’s victories in Texas, Oklahoma, and Alaska, as well as Marco Rubio’s win in Minnesota, prove that Trump can be defeated.  He’s far from inevitable – the #NeverTrump movement has succeeded in stemming his momentum and presenting to the voters the true ramifications of a Trump nomination.

Moreover, we’ve seen that strategic voting works.  Analysts predicted that Trump would win around 280 delegates in the Super Tuesday contests.  Instead, he only won 254.  Cruz and Rubio’s outperforming polls and delegate expectations point both to Trump’s inherent weakness and to beneficial effects of people casting their vote in a way that maximizes the chance Trump falls short of the 1,237 delegates needed to secure the nomination.

Based on popularity and result, we’ve decided to publish a strategic voting guide to the March 5-8 contests.  Without further ado:

Kansas (caucus): 40 delegates, 25 at-large, 12 for congressional districts, 3 unbound.  Proportional allocation with a 10% threshold at both the statewide and congressional level.

Vote Marco Rubio.  Though polls are scarce in the state and the scant data available show a Rubio and Cruz draw, Rubio has the backing of Kansan Governor Sam Brownback (which will likely boost Rubio in the polls if Brownback stumps for him).  As it currently stands, neither Rubio nor Cruz hit the 15% threshold, though many undecided voters remain.  Given Rubio’s endorsement advantage and proven ability to win late-deciders, Kansas is a state ripe for Rubio pick up at the expense of Trump.  Republicans and Democrats alike would be wise to strategically caucus for Rubio to boost his delegate count and decrease Trump’s.

Kentucky (caucus): 46 delegates, 25 at-large, 18 for congressional districts, 3 unbound.  Proportional allocation with a 5% threshold.

Vote Marco Rubio.  The most recent poll has Rubio trailing Trump by 13 but leading Cruz by 7.  Given the low threshold, even with the majority of Cruz supporters rallying around Rubio, Cruz will still receive delegates.  Adding half or more of Cruz’s support to Rubio significantly cuts into Trump’s lead.  Add in Kasich supporters and some undecided voters and Trump will be defeated.  Caucuses are Trump’s weak spot.  He fails to get people to caucus locations.  Rubio will have better luck doing that (as evidenced by Minnesota) and, with the backing of other candidate supporters, will defeat Trump.  All Trump losses slow his increase in delegates and make it harder for him to win the nomination.  A vote for Rubio here is a must.

Louisiana (primary): 46 delegates, 25 at-large, 18 for congressional districts, and 3 unbound.  Proportional allocation with a 20% statewide threshold (but none in the congressional districts).

Vote Ted Cruz.  Again, polling data is scant.  That said, Cruz tends to perform well in Southern states and Louisiana will likely be no exception.  With Louisiana’s high statewide threshold, it’s imperative that Rubio voters flock to Cruz so that their vote is not divided and Cruz is viable for the at-large delegates.  Trump would win all 25 through a backdoor winner-take-all (WTA) if Cruz and Rubio fail to reach 20%.  At the district level, adding to Cruz’s vote total takes delegates away from Trump.  In a race dominated by delegate math, every little bit helps.  A strategic vote for Cruz in Louisiana will advance the goal of preventing a Trump nomination.

Maine (caucus): 23 delegates, 20 at-large and 3 unbound.  Proportional allocation with a 10% threshold.

Vote Marco Rubio.  No polls guide this decision, but rather the intuition that Rubio runs better in New England than does Ted Cruz (as polls are taken, we will update this section).  Maine’s low threshold means that even in half of Cruz’s support goes to Rubio, Cruz will likely receive delegates.  Kasich, though strong in New England, would likely stand below the 10% threshold (based on national trends – again, this will be updated with polling data if some comes available); his supporters should caucus for Rubio.  Again, caucuses favor Trump’s challengers.  Maine is another opportunity for the non-Trump coalition to pick up a victory and delegates and to show America that Trump is not a viable candidate.

Hawaii (caucus): 19 delegates, 10 at-large, 6 in the two congressional districts, and 3 unbound.  Proportional allocation with no threshold.

Vote Marco Rubio.  We’re operating in the dark here.  No polls have been taken in the Aloha State.  However, Hawaii tends to be an establishment-friendly state that has voted for moderate candidate in past primary seasons.  Marco Rubio, then, would stand the best chance of defeating Trump.  (If polls are taken and released, we’ll update this portion).

Idaho (primary): 32 delegates, 29 at-large, and 3 unbound.  Proportional allocation with a 20% threshold.

Voted Ted Cruz.  The most recent poll shows Trump in the lead but Cruz within striking distance.  Idaho tends to be a deeply conservative state, which favors Cruz.  The poll has him just below threshold – if Carson and Rubio voters rally to Cruz, he will easily surpass 20% (Rubio is not close) and will likely challenge Trump for delegates here.  Cruz is the only non-Trump candidate who could be viable for delegates and who could hand Trump a needed loss.

Michigan (primary): 59 delegates allocated proportionally with a 15% threshold and a WTA trigger.

All candidates above the 15% threshold are eligible to receive delegates unless one candidate earns a majority of the statewide votes, in which case he wins all 59 delegates.

Vote Marco Rubio.  It’s close, but he leads Cruz in the polls and, barring new data that dramatically changes our calculations, stands the best chance of beating Trump in this crucial state.  Rubio is above the 15% threshold, though not by much.  He needs new support to keep well above 15% – otherwise, Trump sweeps 59 delegates.  Trump leads in Michigan, but aligning around Rubio should double his poll numbers (this includes Kasich and Cruz supporters.  Kasich will not be viable.  His supporters must rally around Rubio).  Strategically voting for Rubio makes him competitive with Trump, will keep the delegate count close, and may even hand Trump a stunning loss.

Mississippi (primary): 40 delegates, 28 at-large and 12 at the congressional district level.  Proportional with a 15% threshold statewide and at the congressional level; WTA district trigger.

Candidates above 15% statewide are viable for delegates; those above 15% in congressional districts earn at least one delegate unless a candidate gets a majority of the votes in that district, in which case he wins all 3.

Vote Ted Cruz.  Little polling data is available, but Cruz, who runs well in the South and in religious statements, is best positioned in this state (as part of his “southern firewall”).  Trump also does well in the deep South – see his Georgian and Alabamian victories – and could use Mississippi to net many delegates.  Considering he has the potential to win congressional districts and net 12 delegates there, it is imperative that voters flock to Cruz to keep him above the 15% threshold and to keep Trump from earning a majority of the votes anywhere in the state.  It’s an opportunity for Cruz to prevent Trump from expanding his delegate lead and perhaps even eroding his current advantage.

 

March 15 marks the beginning of WTA states.  To a large extent, momentum from these March 5 and 8 contests will shape the trajectory of primaries held in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina.  These caucuses offer a prime opportunity to hand Trump losses, eat into his delegate lead, and reshape the narrative of the race.  Please, use this guide to cast strategic ballots and ensure that Donald J. Trump and his fascist tendencies do not represent the Republican Party come November.

 

Sources for delegate allocation come from FHQ and The Green Papers.

[Like what you see?  Consider donating here so we can reach an ever-large audience.  Thank you!]


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